Boeing has lowered its forecast for aircraft demand over the next 20 years for the first time since the 2009 financial crisis and expects 43,110 aircraft deliveries by 2039 from all models and manufacturers.
The air transport industry is heavily affected by the Covid-19 crisis.
Darren Hulst, Director of sales and marketing at Boeing said:
In August, domestic traffic was 49% of the 2019 level for the same period, and international traffic was 12%. In September, global traffic was at 54% of normal activity.
According to the outlook of the US aircraft manufacturer, which dominates the sector together with its main competitor Airbus, traffic is expected to grow by an average of 4% per year, compared to 4.6% a year ago and 5% in previous years.
Boeing forecasts a 2% decline in aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years compared to its 2019 forecast. The global commercial fleet is expected to reach 48,400 aircrafts by 2039, compared to 25,900 today.
Single-aisle, medium range aircraft, such as the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, will continue to account for the majority of demand with 32,270 deliveries over 20 years. However, the growth of the aviation market will take place more than ever in Asia, which is expected to account for almost 40% of the world fleet in 2039, compared to 30% today.
The demand is expected to be driven in particular by aircraft replacements, as airlines strive to accelerate the rejuvenation of their fleets in order to save money and limit their carbon footprint.
In total, it is expected that Airbus and Boeing will continue to share most of the civil aviation market, which Boeing's study estimates at $8.5 trillion over 20 years, including the maintenance market, estimated at $425 billion annually. That's $200 billion less over 20 years than indicated in the 2019 forecast.