Empty airports and empty planes - these were the surreal yet everyday scenes during the health crisis. Now that international tourism is back on its feet, travellers in search of far-flung destinations are eagerly making their way back to boarding rooms. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is forecasting a return to pre-crisis levels as early as this year. However, the industry is facing a number of challenges, mainly social and economic, which are somewhat hampering its return to normality.
While the ICAO predicts that growth of around 3% on 2019 figures will be achieved by the end of the year, Eurocontrol is predicting a full recovery in aviation activity by 2025. According to Eurocontrol data, total traffic this year will be "only" 92% of its pre-crisis level. For its part, Airports Council International (ACI) predicts a return to normal for commercial aviation in 2024.
While not everyone agrees on the year of full recovery, they all note a significant increase in the sector's performance last year. For example, the strong recovery in demand for air travel has resulted in passenger numbers in 2022 estimated at 74% of pre-pandemic levels, while passenger revenues are estimated at around 68% of 2019 levels.
A sector hit hard by the health crisis
According to an ACI report, the pandemic would have reduced traffic by 5.2 billion users, representing a potential loss of 52.9%. The loss would be 49.5% compared with 2019 results, or 4.5 billion passengers. The ICAO has also looked at the issue and points to a loss of around 372 billion dollars in airline gross operating revenue for 2020 due to an overall reduction of 2,703 million passengers.
For 2021, the operating loss will be 324 billion dollars, while the overall reduction in passengers will be 2,203 million. These figures will continue to fall in 2022, with an operating loss of between $186 billion and $217 billion and an overall reduction in passengers of between 1,157 million and 1,393 million. The report shows that the sector is recovering, but this will take time due to the violent impact of the crisis on the industry.
While the pandemic has been a veritable cataclysm for the airline industry, it has also brought to light problems that previously flew under the radar. In any...
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