Nicolas Baverez offers a clear and critical look at economic policies across the different periods of French history. In a work entitled Trente piteuses (“The Pitiful Thirty” referring to the thirty years following The Glorious Thirty years post WWII), he deplores the refusal of the French to adapt to the major transformations in the world, avoiding reforms that were considered indispensable, but painful to undergo. Now it is high time to do them as the situation becomes more urgent. According to Nicolas Baverez, France can no longer count on its welfare state model, fed by a colossal debt that could lead to the loss of its production capacity and defiance of financial markets. His most recent book - Réveillez-vous ! (éditions Fayard) – is intended to sound the alarm and offer encouragement. An attentive observer of economic growth and lessons from history, he predicts a high-risk year for 2013 with almost zero growth and cumulated debt/drain of 65 billion euros from companies. Between risking a recession, increasing unemployment, competition from neighboring countries, and debt crisis… France is in suspense. Nicolas Baverez calls for a fight for recovery thanks to France’s decisive assets and the invention of a new productive, social, citizen and European pact.
"Today we are seeing a shift in international economic geography. With the rise in power of countries in the South, which represent 34% of global demand and one billion people in the middle classes, there is no longer a divide between North and South, but between those countries that are capable of reform, such as the United States and Germany, and those that are not. The problems related to debt, unemployment and aging populations persist around the world. To this may be added challenges linked to digitization -with the loss of a certain number of unskilled jobs- of which the United States controls the economic infrastructure. It is thus fundamental for countries to adapt to these changes in order to meet challenges and become more competitive on the international scene.
Europe is in the middle of it, plagued by problems linked to globalization, the aging of its population, competition, sovereign debts, as well as the Euro crisis. While it has made progress, particularly as far as concerns the economic government of the Eurozone, we cannot say we are out of the crisis. The present moment is key for the entire continent, which is currently threatened by deflation, the ECB must work to resume inflation and create a long-term financing program to allocate business credits. The continent's geopolitical environment has become dangerous, as the recent crisis in the Ukraine shows.
We can hope that France will put an end to its unreasonable policy. It has become a risk for Europe and itself, while economic growth remains zero its population continues to grow. The risks are major, but the country has an ability to react and rapidly change course. France has the privilege to be a large developed country but must stop its unreasonable policies. It has assets such as its demographics, the financial savings of its citizens, its human capital, its infrastructures, its lifestyle and its poles of excellence in the public. Today, France must decrease its public spending and reintegrate young people on its job market to revive its competitive bent."
Europe is in the middle of it, plagued by problems linked to globalization, the aging of its population, competition, sovereign debts, as well as the Euro crisis. While it has made progress, particularly as far as concerns the economic government of the Eurozone, we cannot say we are out of the crisis. The present moment is key for the entire continent, which is currently threatened by deflation, the ECB must work to resume inflation and create a long-term financing program to allocate business credits. The continent's geopolitical environment has become dangerous, as the recent crisis in the Ukraine shows.
We can hope that France will put an end to its unreasonable policy. It has become a risk for Europe and itself, while economic growth remains zero its population continues to grow. The risks are major, but the country has an ability to react and rapidly change course. France has the privilege to be a large developed country but must stop its unreasonable policies. It has assets such as its demographics, the financial savings of its citizens, its human capital, its infrastructures, its lifestyle and its poles of excellence in the public. Today, France must decrease its public spending and reintegrate young people on its job market to revive its competitive bent."
