HAF "We believe that the outcome of the current situation is such that there will be many hotels that will exit the market"

8 min reading time

Published on 29/11/22 - Updated on 23/10/24

Jochen Schaefer-Suren IREMIS

Jochen Schaefer-Suren, founder and co-chairman of IREMIS, a real estate investment management company, spoke at the Hospitality Asset Forum to present the proper development of an investment strategy in these very difficult times and his three viable investment strategies for success.

We are in a changing world. What is happening? What is important are the cyclical changes, the short-term ones as well as the other changes. I'm going to focus on the ones that are most important because they are the structural changes that last. And any investment that will last seven or eight years minimum, unless you are a trader/trade-up, will have to live with these changes that will last.

What are the drivers of these changes?

  • The Covid is a one-off, it may happen again but it is not something we have to live with on a regular basis;
  • The new world order, with the war in Ukraine, tensions with China and other tensions, all of this will have a lasting impact;
  • Ecological behaviour, saving energy, all these new behaviours;
  • The impacts on food production, droughts, fires and other unrest, the economy as a whole and the cost of all of this will have an impact on capital markets and financing.

What is interesting, and I think really structuring, is that a lot of companies are thinking about onshoring. This is the opposite of globalisation and this morning Nicolas Baverez spoke of "deglobalisation". Because this has an inflationary effect which will last and we must already think about inflation in two or three years' time.

Other changes that have taken place include long-term inflations, impacts on interest rates, households, companies, government budgets, cyclical inflations and QE or QT (the opposite of monetary policy). Everyone hears about inflation. In October, it passed the 10% mark in the UK and Europe. Interest rates went up 300 basis points, minus 25/ minus 30 basis points, they went to 260/270, they were at 3% in the US, mortgage rates were at 6/6.5% and that's going to continue to be the case.

The other...

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