Editorial

France will not win the Fields Medal in tourism mathematics

Cocorico! It’s official—estimated with a certain margin of error, but validated by the UN nonetheless—France remains the world's leading tourist destination, recording 100 million international stays in 2024. This global leadership, upheld as a banner for decades, brings undeniable media prestige, though the economic reality is far more complex.

Certainly, and even more so in an Olympic year, France is actively contributing to the global tourism recovery. With 1.4 billion international tourist trips in 2024, the industry has effectively erased the impact of the COVID crisis.

Certainly, with its official 100 million stays, France remains at the forefront of the European market, which welcomed around 750 million international arrivals in 2024—slightly more than in 2019. However, it faces increasing competition from its main rival, Spain, which reports 94 million international stays.

Skeptics—who are plentiful when it comes to statistics—lament the approximate methodologies used to produce the published figures. The harsh reality is undeniable: France will not be winning a Fields Medal for tourism mathematics anytime soon.

Since INSEE abandoned the national consolidation of local agency observations, the tracking of foreign visitor numbers has been based more on broad estimations and extrapolations rather than precise analytical insights.

Without a realistic redefinition of indicators, we will continue to classify a Polish truck driver, stopping overnight at a highway rest stop en route to Spain, in the same visitor profile as an American tourist exploring Bordeaux’s vineyards with his spouse.

Clearly, France’s global leadership as a preferred international tourist destination lags behind Spain and is increasingly challenged by the United States—and soon, even by Italy.

The revenue illusion no longer holds

In terms of revenue, the illusion is fading fast. As final destinations for extended stays, the United States and Spain outperform France, surpassing €100 billion—sometimes even €120 billion—in annual tourism revenue. By comparison, France expects €71 billion in 2024, despite a 21% jump from 2023, thanks in part to the Olympic Games. The gap in high-value tourism remains significant.

We continue to operate in a paradox. With its extensive open-air hospitality infrastructure, family-oriented resorts, tourist villages, and vast coastline, France remains an accessible destination for the masses. But should volume still be our priority?

As soon as one enters metropolitan areas or ventures beyond the traditional tourism strongholds—Paris, the French Riviera, high-altitude ski resorts—the price tag rises sharply, rivaling that of the most exclusive international hubs and luxury resorts. Should we instead prioritize a higher-spending clientele?

If Tourism Satellite Accounts were more precise, both the assessment of France’s real market position and the strategic roadmap for the industry would be more effective.

The future of hospitality investment: A necessary shock in supply?

The added value in tourism relies fundamentally on a strong supply-side strategy. A shock in supply is long overdue, particularly in the hotel sector, which has remained stubbornly stagnant for decades. More importantly, expansion must be directed toward high-growth segments.

Traditional budget family hotels are struggling against short-term rental platforms, which better match the behavior and budget of leisure travelers. Meanwhile, the lifestyle hospitality segment is well on track, particularly in the upper-tier market, where it continues to thrive.

Is premiumization the universal solution?

Is a move upmarket the inevitable path forward? Can the hospitality experience be reinvented across all categories? Who will define the next investment roadmap if market data remains flawed or imprecise?

These are crucial questions that will drive discussions at our upcoming Operator Forum, where we will explore the transformation of business models and operational strategies in the hospitality sector.

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