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April 2010, a global rebound of activity

The European hotel indicators are blooming with bright colours. Boosted by the national performances of the leading countries, such as the United Kingdom, France and Germany, the RevPAR progresses by 5.5%, a figure long awaited in the professional circles. The first stage of the positive movement within the hotel cycle has been reachef everywhere : OR are in the right move, whatever the hotel category may be, whatever the country in the EU may be. This is not yet the case for the Average Daily Rate, because the level of margin is quite not the same everywhere in Europe. The countries with a high concentration of upscale hotels, the ones that have best performed in April, are able to lead the game. But it is obvious that the notorious over supply in countries such as Spain and the countries in Central Europe, prevents them from posting nice results.A quick look at the level of performances by nations is leading to a first conclusion: three different categories of countries are battling to get out of the crisis. The first ones were so drastically affected that the recovery is impressive as the economic trend is well oriented (Germany, Austria, Netherland, Spain and Sweden); the second ones have managed to monitor their activity through the most difficult times and their rebound in the positive cycle is clear but naturally the level of rates is more modest (United Kingdom and France) and, at the very far end of the spectrum, the third ones have a long way to go to get over their large capacity and national economic weakness (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland... Denmark is a special case because it is not fair to compare the figures with a period when the country was very active hosting international summits). Nonetheless, the general rise in OR is a good sign, especially when April is a strong month for MICE activities. The WTO is pretty optimistic regarding international movements in 2010. On a 12-month basis, there is clearly two sides: the first one is already in the positive cycle, the second one has to wait for a general driving effect.The adjustment has now begun, but it is clear that the crisis has taken an heavy token on the industry, just looking at the 12-mont rolling performance with a RevPAR still down by almost 10%, taking all categories and all countries into account.

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