In a context of economic improvement, the perspectives for 2016 and 2017 are generally positive for the hotel industry in Europe. Nonetheless situations are variable from one country to the next and one category to the next, depending on the characteristics of supply and demand that are specific to each market. forecasts are a precious tool for forecasting future trends more clearly.
For the second consecutive year the RevPAR progressed in Europe in 2015. This renewed hotel activity relies first and foremost on demand driven by macroeconomic factors (change in GDP, household consumption, investments, employment, real estate...) that are more favorable in Europe. the impact of these economic fundamentals on future hotel performances should nonetheless be nuanced according to national situations, and exposure of different markets to international and domestic hotel demand. The evolution of future activity also depends a great deal on the recent and current dynamic of the hotel supply, which is specific to each market and each range.
Other factors bring their share of uncertainty for 2016: the consequences of the terrorist attacks in Paris on French markets as well as on major European markets; the emergence of an alternative supply in commercial accommodations (sharing sites, tourism residences, youth hostels, etc.). Moreover, certain events are significant enough to influence national hotel performances, such as Milan's World's Fair in 2015, that swells last year's comparison base; or, inversely, UEFA Euro 2016 in France in June and July 2016, that will drive average daily rates.
To offer a clearer outlook, hotel activity forecasts 2016-2017 from Hospitality ON use historical data from MKG (supply and demand), that make it possible to quantify the influence of different factors and develop a template. The forecasts thus offer indispensable visibility of potential activity in Europe.
Each report presents:
- The structure of the supply by category (economy, midscale, upscale) and by operator profile (corporate chain, global supply including independent hotels) in terms of number of hotels and rooms and changes in the last 5 years, making it possible to characterize the relative importance of each segment or to position each country and each market in the development cycle of the product.
- The presentation of recent activity data (occupancy rate, average daily rates and RevPAR), in annual and monthly terms, which provides the trends under way in terms of change in demand and making it possible to study how occupancy and price contribute to RevPAR on each of the property categories.
- Analysis of the macroeconomic environment with an impact on volumes and characteristics of demand for hoteliers and their forecasts for 2016 and 2017 (forecasts from the European Commission and the OECD).
- Annual hotel forecasts for 2016 and 2017, for each category on a national level, as well as a focus on the capital across all categories. The reports are available for 7 countries: France, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, The Netherlands and Belgium, taxes included or excluded, in French or English.
Using proven methods, ad hoc studies are also possible upon request for other markets (countries, regions, major cities, property profiles...), subject to the possibility of establishing sufficiently wide perimeters to guarantee the density of samples and the statistical representativeness of correlation models, and thus establish reliable results for the territory in question.
Explore the contents of this report: learn about the contents of this report from this example drawn from a previous edition published by MKG Hospitality):
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